Time to Get Serious on Sano

The international signing period begins today, and now we get to find out how serious the O's were about their interest in Dominican infielder Miguel Angel Sano. The teams rumored to be at the front of the line for Sano continue to be Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Baltimore, with the Pirates reportedly already making their first offer. Sano is expected to command something in the neighborhood of $3MM, which may work in the Orioles' favor as the Pirates and Twins are notoriously stingy clubs. If Pittsburgh balks at Sano's initial demands, the O's may have an opportunity to snag him. Now that the signing period has officially begun, it will be interesting to see the O's actual level of interest after publicly admitting being impressed by the prospect.

Update 7/7/09: The picture continues to get clearer on where Sano will land. MLBTR relays reports from ESPN's Jorge Arangure that the Twins have all but fallen out of contention, leaving the Pirates and Orioles as the most likely suitors. The Orioles, however, see Sano as a "late-first-round talent", making them unlikely to offer the Dominican his rumored $4MM asking price. Arangure also speculates that the defection of Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman, who is likely to command a signing bonus over $30MM, makes any last minute offers for Sano unlikely. The thinking here is that the Pirates remain in the lead to sign him. You can bet nothing significant will happen until the investigation into Sano's age by MLB is resolved.

Update II 7/8/09: The O's are reportedly close to making an official offer to Sano. Interestingly, the offer is rumored to be for a larger bonus than they gave first round pick Matt Hobgood. If this is true, an offer more than Matt Hobgood's $2.42MM would likely challenge that of Pittsburgh, who's international signing bonus budget is just $2MM.

Bergesen, Reimold, Trembley

Want to pass along this FanGraphs article on the "underrated" Brad Bergesen. Bergy has been something of a surprise because of his 89 mph fastball and lack of a swing-and-miss pitch, but his efficiency at getting ground balls has lead to a 3.76 ERA in 12 starts. The most notable part of the article:

However, the strikeout obsession has led to a lot of missed evaluations on groundball specialists, and Bergesen is proving to be exactly that. Pitch F/x shows that his fastball has similar amounts of vertical movement to some guy named Roy Halladay, so we shouldn’t be terribly surprised that Bergesen has a 54% groundball rate through his first twelve major league starts.

If Bergesen can keep piling on wins and keep that ERA under 4.00, he could be in the running for rookie of the year come September. His biggest competition may be fellow Oriole Nolan Reimold, who smashed his ninth home run last night and now sports a line of .293/.374/.553 in 123 at-bats. Reimold's success has lead to me pulling my hair out about twice a week when Dave Trembley inexplicably has him on the bench. This has been a growing concern for me throughout the season, as Trembley seems to want to get guys playing time like he's a Little League manager. The MASN talking-heads feed this stupidity by saying things like "getting guys at-bats." Well excuse me, but I couldn't care less how many at-bats Ty Wigginton or Oscar Salazar get. Put the lineup out there that gives you the best chance to win every night, with the occasional day off as needed. Rookie status shouldn't matter either, especially in Reimold's case, as he clearly doesn't need to be "eased" into MLB pitching with one of the best triple slash lines on the team. The guy is 25 years old and spent around 1200 at-bats in the minor leagues. He's either ready or he isn't. Then again, nothing Trembley does surprises me these days after he batted Ty Wigginton cleanup. That's Ty Wigginton, he of the .261/.304/.389 line. Guys slugging .389 don't belong in your lineup, much less in the 4 hole. Hopefully Dave cuts that stuff out when the cavalry from the minors comes and this team starts to be relevant again, or MacPhail should find another manager.

Update: Bergesen made those FanGraphs guys look pretty smart, as a day after their article on him he shut down the Red Sox to the tune of 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.

Yankees Enter Sano Sweepstakes

Wrote here about a week ago that the O's were considering Dominican phenom Miguel Angel Sano. The Pirates, Indians, and Twins are also known to be interested, with Pittsburgh rumored to be the frontrunner to land the 16-year-old infielder. The Pirates are apparently preparing an offer as high as $4 million.

I took the O's interest in Sano as a sign that MacPhail is serious about upgrading the team's presence in the area, but only if they are going to make him a serious offer. What may be considered a serious offer may have just gotten more complicated, as MLBTR reports via ESPN's Jorge Arangure that the Yankees are now interested in Sano. Arangure claimed via Twitter however that the Yankees are not willing to go as high as $4 million if that is indeed the price. Excuse me if I reserve judgment on what the Bombers are willing to spend on a prospect as highly regarded as Sano. If the Pirates end up out-spending NYY to land him, that chill you'll feel will be hell freezing over.

Update: The O's are holding a three-day workout for Sano June 22-24 that will be attended by director of international scouting John Stockstill. Jeff Zrebiec reports that the team is showing "significant" interest in Sano.

Broadcaster Bullshit

Wanted to pass along this FanGraphs article that perfectly articulates my thoughts on 99% of MLB commentary. It's frustrating because baseball is a sport brimming with useful statistics that really make the game interesting, and most of them are completely ignored by broadcasters. Sadly our own Buck Martinez and Gary Thorne are perfect examples of this, making going to the games (and the mute button) all the more valuable.

O's Game Tonight

Well the Lakers won a thrilling game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead and we sold our house today, so needless to say I'm in a pretty good mood. It's also a beautiful day for baseball, and I'll be at Camden Yards tonight to see the O's take on the Braves. I'm looking forward to this game more than most as tonight is floppy hat night (it's reversible!) and I'll get a look at the much hyped Tommy Hanson for Atlanta. Jason Berken goes for Birds, pitting rookie against rookie. Berken got shelled in his last start, lasting just 3.1 innings and allowing 9 earned in the loss. Berken will try to rebound against Chipper Jones and the Braves, who have won 7 of their last 8 against the O's.

Good God Get the O's Away from the West Coast.

The Orioles were swept by the A's over the weekend, completing an ugly west coast road trip with a 1-5 record while getting outscored 22-10. Deconstructing the Oakland series:

The Good

Despite getting thoroughly handled at every point in the series (the O's didn't hold a lead for a single inning), there are some positives to dig out the wreckage.

Nolan Reimold continues to hit.

While Matt Wieters is struggling at the plate to start his major league career, fellow rookie Reimold has hit the ground running. Reimold had 2 hits including a 3-run HR in one start and two pinch hit appearances in the series. In his first 72 major league at-bats, the left fielder has hit .280/.325/.556 with 6 home runs. The OBP is low, but figures to improve given his strong OBP numbers in AA and AAA. The encouraging aspect of Reimold's start is the power, homering once every 12 at-bats and compiling the third best SLG on the team behind Luke Scott (.672) and Adam Jones (.597). It's a small sample size but a promising start nonetheless from the 25-year-old outfielder.

The bullpen was lights out.

Mark Hendrickson, Matt Albers, Alberto Castillo, Brian Bass, David Hernandez, Danys Baez, George Sherrill, and Jim Johnson allowed a combined 3 earned runs in 18.1 innings. All three of those runs were allowed by Hendrickson on a 3 run HR by Matt Holliday on Friday. Take out Hendrickson's 3.1 inning appearance, and the bullpen tossed 15 innings of scoreless baseball. It should be noted that the A's have the 28th worst team batting average in MLB, but the bullpen's performance is encouraging nonetheless, especially given the precarious position they were put in by the starters as is detailed later in this post.

The Bad

The offense.

The offense mustered 20 hits in 100 at-bats for a pathetic .200 BA in the series. Two of the games were against rookie starters. Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold were the only bats that even remotely showed up. The offense scored 5 runs in 3 games. Perhaps most disturbing was the lineup's lack of patience, as the team walked a total of 3 times in the series. Three. The 2009 Orioles are not a playoff team, or a great team, or even a good team. The one thing they are supposed to be able to do, however, is score runs, with some all-star caliber hitters in the lineup. You wouldn't know that from watching them the last week.

The Ugly

The starting pitching.

Starters Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Berken, and Rich Hill threw a combined 4.2 innings and allowed 18 earned runs in the series. 4.2 innings, 18 ER. No one is going to confuse this rotation with the 1971 version (four 20-game winners). Still, against an Oakland team with a collective .242 BA and playing in one of the most favorable parks to pitchers in the majors, the performances are alarming. It's especially disappointing coming from Guthrie, who is supposed to be team's rock in the rotation, and Hill, who has easily the best stuff of the five starters. Hill was coming off a start in Seattle in which he had pitched 7+ shutout innings. Guthrie's start ballooned his ERA to 5.61, which is going to be a sticking point to potential trade partners if MacPhail ever gets serious about moving him. As a rookie who is not considered a prospect, Berken's performance can be more easily ignored. It's weekends like this that make the arrivals of the Big Three of Tillman, Matusz, and Arietta all the more tantalizing.

Hopefully coming home is the best medicine for the O's, who host Seattle, Atlanta, and the NY Mets in the next ten days.

O's Workout Dominican Phenom Sano

There is word from the Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec that the Orioles worked out 16-year-old shortstop Miguel Angel Sano at their baseball academy in the Dominican Republic. Sano is reportedly garnering interest from a number of other clubs, with the Pittsburgh Pirates as the most enthusiastic suitor.

This is yet another subtle indication that the Andy MacPhail era is a marked change from the modus operandi of the various regimes that have overseen more than a decade of losing baseball in Baltimore. MacPhail has made it a priority to improve the O's dreadful international scouting department, both in Asia and Latin America. We have already begun to see the fruits of the former, as Japanese native Koji Uehara has been one of the club's most reliable starters on a staff filled with kids and upstarts. Sano could be the O's first major step forward in Latin America.

Walker Released

The Orioles released lefty reliever Jamie Walker today, and this was an obvious move. Walker is paid to do one thing: get left-handed hitters out.  Check out what lefties are hitting against him so far this season: .458/.462/1.042 for a whopping 1.502 OPS.  Yikes.  Many days Andy MacPhail's job is hard, like deciding what to with Felix Pie, but sometimes the answers are just that easy.

The benefit of Walker's release, other than getting an ineffective pitcher off the roster, is that it makes it easier to keep the likes of Berken, Hernandez, and Bergesen in the big leagues where they belong.

MacPhail on the Draft

The June 9 MLB Draft is quickly approaching, and Steve Melewski over at MASN had an interesting interview with Andy MacPhail on that topic.  Probably the most important thing to take from the interview was MacPhail's assertion that the O's will continue to ignore MLB's asinine slot recommendations for rookie bonuses.  Just remember if the O's listened to MLB on draft bonuses, neither top prospect Brian Matusz or Matt Wieters would be Orioles today.  With the 5th pick this year the O's have a shot at right-hander Aaron Crow, who was actually the 9th pick of Washington in last year's draft but failed to sign with the management-challenged Nationals.  Crow is attractive because he promises to move quickly through the minors and could join Matusz, Tillman, and Arietta in the majors in 2010.  

Guthrie on the Move?

The O's are apparently entertaining the idea of moving Jeremy Guthrie (hat tip to MLBTR), which is interesting for a couple reasons:

1.  Guthrie's value is a little inflated because his salary this season is just $650K, which makes him more attractive to budget-conscious contenders (the Brewers, Reds, Rays, and Twins come to mind). 

2.  While he is technically the O's staff ace, his future place in the rotation is a bit more murky. In a good rotation he really slots in more as a 4th-5th starter, and as the O's young arms continue to bubble to the surface, he becomes more and more expendable.

My initial reaction to the possibility of trading Guthrie was "no way," if only because he has been the O's lone dependable starter for about two seasons now.  A closer look reveals that his value may never be higher to the O's, at a time when his arbitration numbers will continue to increase and he approaches free agency.  I think the haul for Guthrie, given what he really is, could be a pleasant surprise.  Considering Philadelphia's pitching woes, MacPhail should have Phil's GM Ruben Amaro on speed dial.

From the same article there is word that Danys Baez is more likely to be traded.  Personally I think Baez is fool's gold, but he has reestablished some value by having a decent start to the season.